You are now logged out.
New Profits in Fuji Photo… And a New International Pick
The ADR Alert
Tuesday, October 26, 2004
By Alexander Green, Investment Director
Email – #35
** New Profits in Fuji Photo… And a New International Pick
Yesterday we hit our sell stop on Fuji Photo (Nasdaq: FUJIY), locking in our fourth double-digit, short-term gain in less than two weeks.
And today we have a worthy replacement: Mobile Telesystems (NYSE: MBT).
Imagine a leading technology company with operating margins that top 38%, with management earning better than a 20% return on equity, and with revenues up 64% in the last six months, on top of earnings up 128%.
Now imagine this stock is so cheap it sells for just 10 times prospective earnings.
How can this be? Perhaps it’s because the company is based in Moscow. That’s the headquarters for Mobile Telesys, the top Russian provider of cell phone services.
With a market cap of $14.3 billion, MBT is one of the world’s fastest growing mobile phone companies. And although the company operates principally in the Russian federation, it offers subscribers the ability to roam automatically throughout Europe and much of the rest of the world.
And business is booming. At the end of last year, the company had 16.7 million subscribers. But it’s adding new ones at a rate of more than 1 million a month. In fact, today Mobile Telesys has more than 26.6 million users.
That means the company is set to receive an avalanche of recurring revenues. And new subscriber growth should continue to be strong, since less than a quarter of Russia’s 144 million residents currently own cell phones.
(By comparison, in Turkey and Thailand – two countries with comparable per-capita discretionary income – more than half the residents already use mobile phones.)
Technically, this stock looks very strong. Shares of Mobile Telesys are up 76% over the last six weeks – and the stock is still rising on heavy volume.
Obviously, Russia has higher risk profile than most countries where we invest. But by using a trailing stop, we can bat for the back fence while strictly limiting our risk.
**Action to Take***
Buy Mobile Telesys at $146 or better. And place a sell stop at $116 for protection. Speculators may want to take a look at the March $160 calls (symbol: MBT-CL). But don’t pay more than $7.
If you have any questions, feel free to call one of our VIP Trading Services representatives at 888.570.9830 (toll-free) or e-mail: viptrader@oxfordclub.com, or contact Pillar One Advisor Greg Galloway at 800.438.3040 or 407.667.4729.
——————————————————————————–
Stock: Mobile Telesys (NYSE: MBT)
Country: Russia
Current Price: $146
Comment: Buy. Sell stop is $116.
Stock: Sasol Ltd. (NYSE: SSL)
Country: South Africa
Current Price: $20.03
Comment: Buy. Sell stop is $17.
Stock: Lan Airlines (NYSE: LFL)
Country: Chile
Current Price: $23.52
Comment: Hold. Move sell stop up to $21.00.
Stock: Tenaris (NYSE: TS)
Country: Luxembourg
Current Price: Take profits!
Comment: Stock hit trailing stop.
Stock: Tel. De Sao Paulo (NYSE: TSP)
Country: Brazil
Current Price: $16.01
Comment: Buy. Sell stop is $15.
Stock: Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO)
Country: Denmark
Current Price: $52.39
Comment: Buy. Sell stop is $50.
Stock: Yanzhou Coal (NYSE: YZC)
Country: China
Current Price: Take profits!
Comment: Stock hit trailing stop.
Stock: Banco Bilbao (NYSE: BBV)
Country: Argentina
Current Price: $15.05
Comment: Buy. Sell stop is $14.30.
Stock: Fuji Photo (Nasdaq: FUJIY)
Country: Japan
Current Price: $33.44
Comment: Buy. Sell stop is $33.
Stock: PetroKazakhstan (NYSE: PKZ)
Country: Canada
Current Price: Take profits!
Comment: Stock hit trailing stop.
——————————————————————————–
Bio: Alexander Green is the Investment Director of The Oxford Club. A Wall Street veteran, he has over 16 years experience as a research analyst, investment advisor, and professional portfolio manager. Mr. Green is also considered one of the most talented financial writers in the business. He’s been featured on “The O’Reilly Factor,” profiled by Forbes and Marketwatch.com, and has written for Louis Rukeyser and several other leading financial publications. He currently writes and directs The Oxford Club Communiqué, the Oxford Insight e-letter, and four elite trading services: one focused on momentum stocks, another focused on companies with significant insider buying, another dedicated to international growth stocks and another focused on short-selling fundamentally flawed companies. Mr. Green is also a top-rated speaker at financial conferences around the country.
——————————————————————————–
Copyright – 2004 The Oxford Club, LLC. The Oxford Club does not act as an investment advisor or advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment. The Oxford Club expressly forbids its writers from having a financial interest in any security recommended to its readers. All of our employees and agents must wait 24 hours after an Internet publication prior to following an initial recommendation. And for hard-copy-only publications, 72 hours after the publication is mailed. Investments recommended in this letter should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company. The Oxford Club provides its members with unique opportunities to build and protect wealth, globally, under all market conditions. The executive staff, research department and editors who contribute to The Club’s recommendations are proud of the reputation The Oxford Club has built since its inception in 1984. We believe the advice presented to its members in our published resources and at our meetings and seminars is the best and most useful available to global investors today. The recommendations and analysis presented to members is for the exclusive use of members. Copying or disseminating any information published by The Oxford Club, electronic or otherwise is strictly prohibited. Members should be aware that investment markets have inherent risks and there can be no guarantee of future profits. Likewise, past performance does not assure future results. Recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Investor Bulletin
