What were your takeaways? Click here to send me your feedback and comments.

To view Episode 51 of Survive and Thrive, “Look How Far We’ve Come,” click here.

To view Episode 50 of Survive and Thrive, “Life with Intention,” click here.

To view Episode 49 of Survive and Thrive, “Look for Love,” click here.

To view Episode 48 of Survive and Thrive, “Cherish Your Life,” click here.

To view Episode 47 of Survive and Thrive, “Find Your Inner Energy,” click here.

To view Episode 46 of Survive and Thrive, “The Key to Mental Hygiene,” click here.

To view Episode 45 of Survive and Thrive, “This Is Why the World Has United,” click here.

To view Episode 44 of Survive and Thrive, “How to Thrive in Uncertain Markets (4 Questions),” click here.

To view Episode 43 of Survive and Thrive, “Five Keys to a Happy Retirement,” click here.

To view Episode 42 of Survive and Thrive, “Start Trusting Yourself,” click here.

To view Episode 41 of Survive and Thrive, “Make the Most of the Holidays,” click here.

To view Episode 40 of Survive and Thrive, “How Much Should You Invest?” click here.

To view Episode 39 of Survive and Thrive, “Getting the Kids Interested in Investing,” click here.

To view Episode 38 of Survive and Thrive, “The Real Way to Fight Fear,” click here.

To view Episode 37 of Survive and Thrive, “A Fear of Finances,” click here.

To view Episode 36 of Survive and Thrive, “You Are Not Alone,” click here. To view Episode 35 of Survive and Thrive, “How to Cut Your Losses,” click here.

To view Episode 34 of Survive and Thrive, “Start Solving All Your Problems,” click here.

To view Episode 33 of Survive and Thrive, “Don’t Panic and Miss Out,” click here.

To view Episode 32 of Survive and Thrive, “Rethink How You Think,” click here.

To view Episode 31 of Survive and Thrive, “A New Type of News,” click here.

To view Episode 30 of Survive and Thrive, “There’s a Great Big Beautiful Tomorrow,” click here.

To view Episode 29 of Survive and Thrive, “Use or Be Used,” click here.

To view Episode 28 of Survive and Thrive, “Every Single Moment Matters,” click here.

To view Episode 27 of Survive and Thrive, “‘Christmas’ In Your Portfolio?” click here.

To view Episode 26 of Survive and Thrive, “You Should Not Sell,” click here.

To view Episode 25 of Survive and Thrive, “Your Most Harmful Instinct,” click here.

To view Episode 24 of Survive and Thrive, “2021: Sparking Magic Moments,” click here.

To view Episode 23 of Survive and Thrive, “When to Retire,” click here.

To view Episode 22 of Survive and Thrive, “How Grateful Are You?”, click here.

To view Episode 21 of Survive and Thrive, “Let’s Be Realistic,” click here.

To view Episode 20 of Survive and Thrive, “Are You Born With Optimism Bias?,” click here.

To view Episode 19 of Survive and Thrive, “Optimism vs. Pessimism: How to Change How You View Things,” click here.

To view Episode 18 of Survive and Thrive, “Mainstream Media? How to Have an Open Mind and Get the Facts,” click here.

To view Episode 17 of Survive and Thrive, “Levels of Global Population and How It Relates to You,” click here.

To view Episode 16 of Survive and Thrive, “Easy Ways to Reduce Stress – Starting Today,” click here.

To view Episode 15 of Survive and Thrive, “Finding the Helpers in Your Life,” click here.

To view Episode 14 of Survive and Thrive, “How to Create and Best Manage Your Time,” click here.

To view Episode 13 of Survive and Thrive, “Surviving and Thriving Beyond Any Circumstance,” click here.

To view Episode 12 of Survive and Thrive, “How to be Successful while Maintaining a Balanced Life,” click here.

To view Episode 11 of Survive and Thrive, “How to Let Go of Resentment and Suffering,” click here.

To view Episode 10 of Survive and Thrive, “How To Find Happiness In What You Do (Career Satisfaction),” click here.

To view Episode 9 of Survive and Thrive, “6 Simple Steps to Take Back Your Health,” click here.

To view Episode 8 of Survive and Thrive, “Why Are You Here? Finding Purpose,” click here.

To view Episode 7 of Survive and Thrive, “7 Steps to Happiness,” click here.

To view Episode 6 of Survive and Thrive, “The Pursuit of Financial Happiness,” click here.

To view Episode 5 of Survive and Thrive, “Take Control of Your Finances,” click here.

To view Episode 4 of Survive and Thrive, “What to Believe In,” click here.

To view Episode 3 of Survive and Thrive, “Relationships: Your Smartest Investment,” click here.

To view Episode 2 of Survive and Thrive, “How to Overcome Fear,” click here.

To view Episode 1 of Survive and Thrive, “The First Steps to Take Your Power Back,” click here.

Welcome back to Survive and Thrive. I’m Nathan Hurd, Chief Growth Officer with The Oxford Club.

And today I want to talk about the difference between staying invested in good times and bad and pulling your money out of the market – what the actual differences are in your potential long-term returns, looking at the numbers.

I wrote an article last week, a column about human emotion. And there was research done in the late ’70s that showed, even at 10 weeks old, infants exhibit at least six basic kinds of emotional tones.

And the research shows that human emotions are extremely complex; we have hundreds of words to describe them. But there are a number of underlying tones, similar to primary colors in how they can be mixed.

Now, many of these emotions skew negative, and they’re designed for survival. In fact, most of them do. Our negative emotions are much more likely to be provoked at a time like this, and there are more of them, those survival emotions, to be provoked.

And so I received a letter about the article, and I want to say thank you. I’m not going to mention names, but I want to thank you for a wonderful letter and a lot of really good thoughts and analysis.

But the argument made in this letter was that there’s no logical reason to invest in the markets right now. This person’s plan was to stay out for now and wait until the markets prove that they’re consistently going up and then jump on the bandwagon during the upswing.

And the argument that was made, or the reasons that were given, were the things that we’re all thinking about. We’ve been in a clear downward trend over two quarters now… inflation is at an all-time high… the Fed is raising rates… it is also quantitative tightening. Then there are the China, you know, COVID lockdowns that are affecting supply chains… and the Russian conflict with Ukraine. Crypto has not proven to hold up during this time… gold has not proven to hold up during this time… and even real estate, now that rates are rising, is softening. Most real estate markets are softening, and prices are coming down.

But I want to share with you some numbers that I think make the compelling case that one of the most dangerous things you can do is pull out of the markets completely.

So here are some numbers to think about. Twenty-seven of the last 36 years have had a positive market return. Twenty-seven in the last 36. Since 1900, there have been 34 bear markets – well, 35 with this more recent one – but since 1946, there have been 14. Alright? And so 34 total, but since 1946, 14. They are happening less and less frequently.

But they’re likely to happen every few years. In the average bear market, there’s a 33% drop. Some were over 40%, and they range from one and a half months to two years, but the average is about a year.

Now, we all know that the best opportunities come at times of maximum pessimism. So on March 9, 2019, the bleeding finally stopped, and in the next 12 months the markets went up 69.3%.

Now, to everyone watching this, you and I both know every single bear market in history – without exception – has been followed by a bull market.

But here’s the thing. On average, the U.S. markets hit a new record high on 5% of trading days, which is, on average, once a month.

The greatest danger is to be out altogether. If you missed out on the top 10 trading days, just 10 days in the last 20 years, your return would have been cut in half. In half. So 8.2% was the average return – it would drop to 4.1% if you missed 10 trading days out of 20 years. If you miss the 20 best trading days, the return drops from 8.2% to 2.1% – a 75% loss, or 75% drawdown.

And if you miss the top 30 days, that return drops to zero.

Now, here’s the scarier part. Six of the top 10 trading days occurred within two weeks of one of the 10 worst trading days.

I’ll say that again. Six of the top 10 trading days occurred within two weeks of one of the 10 worst trading days. And if you missed just 10 days, your returns could have been cut in half. By the way, this data holds up going back further.

And I know things feel scary. It’s legitimate and it’s rational to be uninspired, to be worried by the current circumstances, but things will change. The one thing that’s sure about this life and about the markets is that they will change. They are cyclical, and they always move in cycles.

The thing is, you don’t have to miss much to really hurt your overall returns. As we go forward, remember these numbers. Try to consider that we’re going to be looking back on this moment – no matter what, in a year, in five years… And how would you, how will you feel when you look back on the decisions you make now?

If the markets are back into a bull cycle in a year or two or three, will you want to have been part of them from the start? Of course you would. We all know how emotional, how impossibly emotional and difficult it is to try to time the bottom. There’s really only one way to ensure that you don’t miss the best trading days, and that is to stay invested.

So if you need money now and have short-term financial needs, obviously, please keep that money safe. But for your investments, it’s really worth thinking about the effect that pulling money out of the market has. You miss those 10 trading days, and it can really slice into your returns.

So anyway, I’d love to hear from you on this. What are your thoughts, what are you feeling, and how are you approaching this current situation?

Click the button below and shoot me a note, or click the link in the email and send me a letter. I’d love to hear your thoughts. Until next time, this has been Survive and Thrive.

Thank you.